I have some work, in an Excel spreadsheet. Hello,
My project involves handicapping horse races.
I currently use an excel spreadsheet to organize my information.
There is one piece of information ithat needs to be analyzed and coverted to probabilities.
This is my performance points figure.
I have a series of performance figures, awarded to contestents for an event.
The number of contestents in each event varies from 4 to 20.
A typical set of inputs for the performence figures might be:
73,68,54,50,44,42
The spread between points varies from one contest to the next.
The higher the figure, the more likely the contestent will be the winner.
On average, the contender ranked highest wins at a rate of about 38% (see insert).
Category Win Second Third
A HORSE 37% 27% 23%
B HORSE 28% 27% 21%
C HORSE 6% 10% 15%
D HORSE 7% 11% 14%
E HORSE 11% 11% 10%
I want a Monte Carlo Sim integrated into my worksheet to help me accurately define probabilities for each contender, by analyzing the performance figures.
My current method for estimating each contenders probability is to simply divide the individual figure by the total sum of points awarded. Obviously not very accurate.
I would appreciate any ideas you might have.
Hello Sir,
We checked your data entry requirement for your horse races work and we have also experienced of like this work.
Please start more discussion and start the work asap.
Thanks
hi
i am interested in your project.i understand what you want.i have another idea to give you accurate point to get awarded with high accuracy.
i will apply some machine learning algorithm on data and predict your winning number. can i see your data ?
I understand the probability distribution concepts and can help you with a small script, programmed where the inputs come from your end and you can get the estimated probabilities with logical reasoning and formulas, I will also provide you with statistical analysis.
Example : There are 10 horses running a season.
I will not only help you predict which horse will win a particular race but also help you analyse which horse is likely to win the entire season.
I've a Masters Degree in Mathematical Finance from Columbia University and have a lot of experience in monte carlo simulation. I think the Monte carlo simulation will not work for your case, because you don't know the distribution of your random outcomes. However I can apply some machine learning techniques which will give you probability of different outcomes based on the past data.